Evolución de los flujos migratorios mixtos atendidos por la Red de Protección y Monitoreo de la Pastoral de Movilidad Humana de la Conferencia Episcopal de Guatemala entre 2016 y 2021 y posibles tendencias a futuro

Abstract

The aim of this article is to analyze the main changes that have taken place in mixed migratory flows (MMF) that go through Guatemala on their way to the United States or Mexico, and that receive humanitarian assistance and monitoring by the Pastoral of Human Mobility of the Episcopal Conference of Guatemala. It is assumed that significant changes have been recorded or are expected to occur in the structure and composition of these MMF in terms of nationality, sex, age groups, collective mobility and reasons for emigrating between two specific periods: the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019) and the transition period (2020-2021). Regarding nationality, Venezuelans will displace Hondurans as the majority group. Regarding sex and age, these MMF will gradually increase the presence of the female population and will also have a higher proportion of children. The male component, however, will maintain its predominance and collective mobility will the main kind of displacements.

The main reasons for emigration will continue to be the lack of economic or job opportunities and forced migration, but this last one will increase as the causes of this type of emigration are not only due to violent acts perpetrated by gang members, mainly in Honduras, but also due to repression perpetrated by state authorities in other countries, for example: Venezuela, Nicaragua and El Salvador. Emigration due to environmental disasters will also gain importance, as people become aware of the negative effects of climate change.

Finally, this article emphasizes on the reasons for forced migration, the violence inflicted on people in transit through Guatemalan territory, especially perpetrated by state authorities according to the reports of those affected, and the impossibility of returning to countries of origin (reverse or return migration) due to hostile conditions towards life and the integrity of the person. Finally, possible trends that will define the MMF in the following years are listed.